Study of Modern Regional and Local anomal variations of seismicity in the Taurus-Caucasus Region

Seismicity activities animation 2012-2023

The real-time monitoring of the seismicity of the territory of the Taurus-Caucasus region shows that at present, since 2021, geodynamic processes of significant intensity have been taking place in the earth's crust of the Taurus-Caucasus region, which can form anomalous areas of increased seismotectonic deformations on separate segments of seismically active faults.

The article studies the activation of weak seismicity in the study area during the period of instrumental observations from 2021 to the present. The structure of the set of sources of weak earthquakes in five-dimensional space (hypocenter, time, energy) is considered. Based on the methods of statistical analysis of instrumental data, clusters of earthquake sources interconnected in space and time with magnitudes M≥3.0.

Seismicity activities animation 2020-2023

Detailed analysis

A detailed analysis shows that almost all types of anomalous manifestations of seismicity (swarms, earthquake doublets, pseudo-gaps, etc.) are observed in the same period in the Taurus-Caucasus region. It was revealed that during the same period, the earthquake epicenters in real time line up mainly along trajectories that have a quasi-perpendicular direction with respect to the main seismically active faults of the Caucasus strike. In the same period, in the Tavrokavkaz region, there is an alternation of seismotectonic stress variations in tense series of earthquakes in the magnitude range M=3.0-5.4 by sequential occurrence in the region of Eastern Turkey, Northern Armenia, Iran, Azerbaijan and the Greater Caucasus.

Before and After Turkey-Syria Earthquakes, 06.02.202

The obtained results (Vladikavkaz 2022, EGU, 2023, Vienna) were visualized for a more accessible and simple presentation.

Conclusion

Although it is still too soon to make predictions, our studies have identified possible hotspots and indicate the need for vigilance. If there is a correlation between earthquakes, meaning the stress-deformation state is transferred and distributed from Iran to Turkey and from Turkey to the north, it shows that we must always be alert and prepared with appropriate scenarios.

For example, it is important to have a scenario in place for the consequences of a 5, 6, or 7 magnitude earthquake. To ensure the safety of buildings, it is important to have building passports that clearly indicate the condition of the existing building stock. To create building passports, instrumental observations and tests must be conducted to diagnose each building visually and instrumentally. After the registration database is established, scenarios can then be developed to determine which buildings should be strengthened and which should be demolished.

For new buildings, there should be strict control over both the construction process and the engineering geological studies of the area. The success of these efforts depends greatly on these measures.